The O’s current hot streak has highlighted the fact their rebuild is starting to come together strong.
Since 2017, the Orioles have been the laughing stock of the MLB. In 2018, 2019, and 2021 they collectively had 333 losses in 486 games, and from 2017–2021, they combined for a winning percentage of about 35%. There are multiple reasons why they ended up this way, but the bottom line is many fans consider the Orioles to be an automatic win whenever facing them.
It doesn’t seem that way anymore.
Since their blown save against the Twins on July 2nd, the Orioles have been the hottest team in baseball, winning 8 straight with a sweep of the Rangers and Angels. This hot streak has propelled the Orioles into the hunt for the AL Wild Card among the other 3 AL East teams, only being 3 games back of the 3rd Wild Card spot. But the Orioles have been playing good baseball all year, and have been one of the few of last year's rebuilding teams to blossom.
For example, The Orioles are one of the few teams that have won a series against the Yankees, taking the series 2–1 after scoring 4 earned runs against Jonathan Loisiga in the 8th inning of Game 3 in April. The Orioles also won several series against teams who made the playoffs last year, such as the Red Sox, Cardinals, Rays (twice), and White Sox (Swept). Now many bad teams get a weird series win over a good team once in a while, but the Orioles have been much more competitive this year compared to the last 5 years, and are very close to beating their win total from last year. This competitiveness is owed to the success of the Orioles rebuild and the promising young stars coming from the Orioles farm, as well as some familiar faces and some breakout seasons.
A quick overview of the metrics I’m going will be in the to be using:
WRC+ stands for Weighted Runs Created, which weighs every outcome a hitter produces and puts it on a scale of 100 being average and 110 being 10% better than average. Slash lines are Batting Average, On Base Percentage, and Slugging Percentage, all in order, so .200/.300./400 is .200 AVG, .300 OBP, and .400 SLG, and wOBA is a weighing metric that takes all hitter outcomes and puts it into a percentage.
Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP), only takes into account only walks, home runs, and strikeouts to focus on outcomes only a pitcher can control, the lower the better like ERA. Skill Interactive Earned Run Average (SIERA) measures weak contact like ground balls and fly balls and puts it into an ERA estimator. ERA- and FIP- are scaled like WRC+ except 100 is average and 90 is 10% below average, which the lower the better for ERA and FIP.
The Baby Birds
The Orioles are led by young talent from Rookies to Veterans who are spark back to Orioles baseball.
During the MLB Lockout, many analytics people and scouts alike were hailing Adley Rutschman as a generational prospect. After much anticipation, he was called up from Triple-A ball this year in May, getting a Triple in his Major League debut. Rutshman has been an above-average catcher to offensive and defensive metrics in his limited plate appearances. But his projections and upside have people intrigued about his future as a top prospect. First, the rookie is a switch hitter who has performed very well in his time in the minors, posting a .312/.405/.490 and a 142 WRC+ in Triple-A last year. Rutshman’s pop time is currently Top 4 in the league among qualified catchers and his framing is currently in the 77th percentile in the league according to Baseball Savant. Adley is also projected to finish with a better 2nd half and better offensive production. Currently, Adley sits at a .307 wOBA and a 98 WRC+, an above-average stat line for a catcher. However, projections see Adley improving offensively as he works his way into the big leagues, and this Orioles team would benefit tremendously once he gets going.
Cedric Mullins is on a down year to his standards. Last year he hit 30 HRs and stole 30 bases, in a .291/.360/.518 with a 136 WRC+. This year, he’s slugging about 100 points less than his last year, and getting on base a little less than last year, but he’s still an above-average hitter at .262/.321/.399 and a 103 WRC+. Not only that, but Mullins is still in the 80th percentile in sprint speed with 16 stolen bags in 81 games. Mullins contributes best in the outfield, having 6 Outs Above Average (OAA), which is in the 95th percentile in the MLB. Mullins has the best fWAR on the team right now, and if he can have a second half similar to last year going forward, he could lead this team for the foreseeable future.
Ryan Mountcastle is another standout player from last year, that is still doing particularly well. Last year, Mountcastle hit 33 HRs slashing .255./309.487 and a 111 WRC+. In spite of this, he was also one of the worst defensive fielders in the game according to Statcast OAA and Fangraphs Defensive rating, which only allowed him to generate 0.6 fWAR in 2021. In 2022, he has stuck to 1st base and has been a positive defensive contributor, having 1 DRS and in the 86th percentile according to OAA. Mountcastle this year has seen his fWAR pass his previous 33 HR season already, having a 1.4 fWAR in almost half the plate appearances. Mountcastle also is in the 90th percentile in Barrel Rate, Average Exit Velocity, Hard Hit rate, and xwOBA. This year, he has improved his offensive production, with a 124 WRC+ halfway through the season. There are a couple of issues, Mountcastle has very bad plate discipline, having one of the lowest walk rates in the league and highest chase and whiff rates in the league. Mountcastle’s 43.1% O-Swing% (swings on pitches outside the zone) is 6th highest in the MLB among qualified hitters. But as long as he makes contact, Mountcastle has a good chance of putting the ball into the seats of Camden Yards.
Jorge Mateo is an offensive liability for the O’s, with a 58 WRC+ and batting below .200. But he is one of the best defensive infielders in the game, with 10 defensive runs saved at Shortstop. And in the rare chance he gets on base, Mateo is also in the 99th percentile in sprint speed, which makes him a positive contributor according to fWAR’s standards.
Tyler Wells has been a decent starter for the O’s, with a 3.28 ERA, 4.2 FIP, and 4.7 xFIP. Wells has been average relative to the league, he is around the middle of the pack at giving up hard contact, and with average velo for a fastball pitcher at 94 MPH. But he is a high-spin pitcher and is young and improving, and is looking to improve as the SP1 this year.
The Baltimore Bullpen
Among the league, The Baltimore Bullpen has distinguished itself as a highly talented young core that allows the Orioles to sustain leads if the Orioles starting pitching performed well (which is not very common). In 2022, Orioles relievers are 6th in FIP, 5th in ERA, and Top 3 in fWAR, Innings Pitched, and GB%. And while their starting pitching is average to below average compared to the league, the Orioles bullpen is a bright spot they desperately needed.
(Stats are Since 7/7)
Félix Bautista is a very impressive rookie for the Baltimore Orioles. Bautista has one of the worst HardHit% and Barrel% allowed out of any pitcher in the MLB. But other than that, he is truly one of the best relievers on the Orioles and could be one of the best in the league. Bautista strikes out batters at around 33%, with a 1.89 ERA this year and a 3.2 FIP. What is most impressive about Bautista is his fastball touches 100–101 MPH and his Slider and Splitter both have a Whiff% over 44%. His splitter in particular is filthy, with a 53% Whiff rate, .103 batting average, and a .129 wOBA against.
Jorge López has also been an out-of-nowhere closer for the Orioles. In his past 4 seasons as a starter in the majors, he had an ERA over 5 for all 4 seasons, a FIP over 5 for 3 of the seasons, and was one of the most hard-hit pitchers in baseball according to Statcast Exit Velocity. This year López has been dominant in his closing/relief role, earning him a spot on the AL all-star team. Before July this year, López had a 0.73 ERA, a 19 ERA- (This is insanely good), 27% strikeout percentage, 2.30 FIP, 3.10 xFIP, 2.91 SIERA, and a 60% Ground Ball percentage. He also had not given up a Home Run in 37 IP and did not give up an earned run in June. After a shaky start to July, Jorge looks to finish the 2nd Half of the season much better than he did in previous years and has been one of the most impressive stories in the MLB this year.
While not a flamethrower like López or Bautista, Dillion Tate is a very good reliever for the Orioles, having the best FIP and xFIP on the team as well as a 2.5 ERA. Tate is one of the best pitchers in baseball at not giving up walks, with a BB% just under 5% and a chase rate in the 80th percentile. Like Lopez, he is a sinker ball-dominant pitcher but has less velo but lots of horizontal run on his pitches. Tate’s sinker is one of the more valuable pitches in baseball according to Baseball Savant Run-Value, with -3.5 RV/100 and a changeup that has a 44% Whiff rate.
Finally, the pitcher with the lowest ERA currently on the Orioles has been Cionel Pérez. Last year in 25 games on the Reds and 24.0 IP he had around a 6.38 ERA and a 6.3 FIP. For reference to the rest of the league, his ERA was 44% above average, and his FIP was 43% above average in 2021 (144 ERA-, 143 FIP-). In a similar sample size on the Orioles in 28 innings he has had a 0.96 ERA and a 2.92 FIP. That’s 75% below average in ERA and 32% below average in FIP (25 ERA-, 68 FIP-). In fact, compared to his stretch on the Reds last year, he has given up 14 fewer earned runs, 9 fewer walks, and 2 more strikeouts and only has given up 1 home run this year compared to last year’s 5. This could be due to him focusing on a 2 pitch mix compared to a 3 pitch mix, ditching his bad changeup in 2022. I’m not saying his production is sustainable, as advanced metrics and expected metrics show he’s going to run out of luck, but his run in 2022 has been impressive and he most certainly has improved.
Familiar Faces showing out
There have also been other impressive showings from some “older” vets this year for the Orioles.
Austin Hays in his 5th season has been impressive on offense with 11 HRs, slashing .261./318/.441, and a 114 WRC+. Last year Hays put up similar numbers, with 22 HRs and a 106 WRC+, but this year he is walking a bit more and striking out about 2% less. He is not very good defensively but is a positive fWAR player, tied for 2nd in fWAR on his team.
Anthony Santander is in his 6th season for the Orioles and is having his best season yet. After an 18 HR season last year with a 92 WRC+, Santander has hit 15 HRs in half the games, with a 113 WRC+. Santander has almost doubled his walk rate this year, from 5% to about 10%. Despite being a below average defender, he has been a great offensive contributor for the O’s and has definitely stood out this season.
Trey Mancini has had a tough road to get where he is right now and is one of the biggest inspirations in the league. In 2019, Mancini had the best year of his career, hitting 35 HRs, and a 132 WRC+. In the dark days of the O’s struggles, he was one of the few bright spots on those horrible teams. But in 2020 he was diagnosed with Stage 3 Colon Cancer and missed all of 2020 due to treatment to fight the disease. Mancini’s story of resilience and perseverance in his fight against cancer is something great in itself, but his work to make it back to the diamond is truly remarkable. In 2021, he comes back from a year off for Cancer treatment and hits 21 HRs and a 105 WRC+. This earned him MLB’s comeback player of the year in 2021, and his comeback hasn’t stopped yet. This year he’s getting on base more, hitting more, and has a 122 WRC+ halfway through the season. What’s even more remarkable to me is how his batted ball profile has been great every year despite him going through his treatment and missing a year of baseball.
An interesting fact about Mancini is that he’s been a very unlucky hitter in regards to HR’s hitting in the worst park as a pull-side righty hitter. Ever since the Oriole Park extension, he has lost an estimated 7 expected home runs at home.
(For example, if Mancini was an Astro, it is estimated he could have doubled his HR totals. )
It also is alleged that Mancini is on the trade block this year. He has not been offered an extension by the Orioles and has been rumored as someone to be used in the outfielder/DH trade market in order for the Orioles to pick up starting pitching. But many Orioles fans don’t want to see him go, and I don’t blame them at all, he’s arguably the face of the team and has been awesome this year in his 2nd year after his recovery.
The Future of the O’s
This young core is something that makes the future of the Orioles bright and promising. 4 out of their top 5 prospects are currently in Triple-A with estimates of 2023 being projected according to the MLB. This includes top pitching prospect in the MLB Grayson Rodriguez (currently recovering from injury) and MLB Futures all-star Gunner Henderson. Other prospects headed up soon are Kyle Stowers and Terrin Vavra, who both are expected to come up very soon. If the Orioles are winning games against great teams now when their farm of prospects finally comes up to the majors, they will most certainly be competitive in the AL East for the next upcoming years, and this recent stretch is something to look forward to.
Stats and sources can be found here: